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Ligue 1 · Matchday 31Saturday 8 May · 16:00 · Stade Francis-Le Blé
Brest14th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Auxerre13th place
BRE 53%X 25%AUX 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brest 0.8, Auxerre -0.5.
  • If Brest score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Auxerre score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.1
Over 2.556%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Brest win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.89X25%3.94222%4.63
Double chance
1X78%1.28X247%2.131275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.556%1.80Under 2.544%2.26BTTS yes57%1.77BTTS no43%2.30

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brest · Columns: Auxerre1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →
BrestLLWDL
AuxerreWLWDL

Head to head

Auxerre – Brest20 September 20262-1
Auxerre – Brest21 March 20263-0
Brest – Auxerre4 January 20262-0
Brest – Auxerre14 February 20252-2
Auxerre – Brest27 September 20243-0
Brest – Auxerre14 May 20231-0