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Ligue 1 · Matchday 31Saturday 8 May · 16:00 · Stade Jean-Bouin
Paris FC4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Lille2nd place
PFC 42%X 29%LIL 29%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris FC 1.0, Lille -0.1.
  • Paris FC take 2.5 points per game at home.
  • If Paris FC score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Lille score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.1
Over 2.543%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Paris FC win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
142%2.39X29%3.48229%3.40
Double chance
1X71%1.42X258%1.721271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.543%2.34Under 2.557%1.74BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paris FC · Columns: Lille1-1 probability 13.9%

Form

Compare →
LilleLWDDW

Head to head

Paris FC – Lille26 April 20260-1
Lille – Paris FC23 November 20254-2