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Ligue 1 · Matchday 31Saturday 8 May · 16:00 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Monaco7th place
RCL 51%X 26%MON 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lens take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • Last 5 games: Lens 1.8 points per game, Monaco 1.0.
  • If Lens score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Monaco score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.2
Over 2.557%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Lens win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.97X26%3.85223%4.30
Double chance
1X77%1.30X249%2.031274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Under 2.543%2.32BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.39

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lens · Columns: Monaco1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →
LensLWWWL
MonacoWDLDL

Head to head

Monaco – Lens18 September 20262-1
Lens – Monaco21 February 20262-3
Monaco – Lens8 November 20251-4
Lens – Monaco17 May 20254-0
Monaco – Lens1 September 20241-1
Lens – Monaco25 February 20242-3