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Ligue 1 · Matchday 31Sunday 9 May · 19:45 · Groupama Stadium
Lyon3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
OL 27%X 26%PSG 47%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 114 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Paris Saint-Germain 3.0 points per game, Lyon 1.8.
  • Paris Saint-Germain take 2.3 points per game away.
  • If Lyon score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.7
Over 2.555%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Paris Saint-Germain win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.70X26%3.85247%2.13
Double chance
1X53%1.89X273%1.371274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.555%1.81Under 2.545%2.23BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.38

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lyon · Columns: Paris Saint-Germain1-1 probability 12.1%

Form

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Head to head

Paris Saint-Germain – Lyon26 October 20262-0
Paris Saint-Germain – Lyon19 April 20261-2
Lyon – Paris Saint-Germain9 November 20252-3
Lyon – Paris Saint-Germain23 February 20252-3
Paris Saint-Germain – Lyon15 December 20243-1
Paris Saint-Germain – Lyon21 April 20244-1