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Ligue 1 · Matchday 32Sunday 16 May · 16:00 · Stade Francis-Le Blé
Brest10th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Le Havre18th place
BRE 57%X 25%HAC 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brest lead by 107 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Brest 1.4 points per game, Le Havre 0.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brest 0.9, Le Havre -0.2.
  • If Brest score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Le Havre score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.0
Over 2.553%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Brest win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.77X25%4.04219%5.35
Double chance
1X81%1.23X243%2.301275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.553%1.87Under 2.547%2.15BTTS yes53%1.88BTTS no47%2.14

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brest · Columns: Le Havre1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →
BrestLWDLW

Head to head

Le Havre – Brest5 September 20261-2
Brest – Le Havre8 March 20262-0
Le Havre – Brest29 October 20251-0
Le Havre – Brest26 January 20250-1
Brest – Le Havre6 October 20242-0
Brest – Le Havre3 March 20241-0