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Ligue 1 · Matchday 24Saturday 13 March · 16:00 · Stade Francis-Le Blé
Brest14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Lille2nd place
BRE 33%X 28%LIL 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lille lead by 126 rating points.
  • Lille take 2.4 points per game away.
  • Last 5 games: Lille 1.6 points per game, Brest 0.8.
  • If Brest score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Lille score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.3
Over 2.546%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Lille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%3.05X28%3.53239%2.57
Double chance
1X61%1.64X267%1.491272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.546%2.18Under 2.554%1.85BTTS yes52%1.92BTTS no48%2.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brest · Columns: Lille1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

Compare →
BrestLLWDL
LilleLWDDW

Head to head

Lille – Brest17 October 20261-1
Lille – Brest14 February 20261-1
Brest – Lille17 August 20253-3
Brest – Lille10 May 20252-0
Lille – Brest6 December 20243-1
Brest – Lille17 March 20241-1