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Ligue 1 · Matchday 24Saturday 13 March · 16:00 · Allianz Riviera
Nice8th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Toulouse11th place
NIC 35%X 28%TFC 37%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Toulouse 0.5, Nice -0.4.
  • If Nice score first, they win 65% of the time
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.3
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Toulouse win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.85X28%3.55237%2.72
Double chance
1X63%1.58X265%1.541272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.549%2.06Under 2.551%1.94BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.18

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nice · Columns: Toulouse1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →
NiceWWLWW

Head to head

Toulouse – Nice17 January 20265-1
Nice – Toulouse16 August 20250-1
Toulouse – Nice2 February 20251-1
Nice – Toulouse25 August 20241-1
Toulouse – Nice3 March 20242-1
Nice – Toulouse26 November 20231-0