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Ligue 1 · Matchday 24Saturday 13 March · 16:00 · Stade Jean-Bouin
Paris FC4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Lorient11th place
PFC 54%X 27%LOR 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris FC lead by 74 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris FC 1.0, Lorient -0.2.
  • Paris FC take 2.5 points per game at home.
  • If Paris FC score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Lorient score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.6 – 0.9
Over 2.546%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Paris FC win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.86X27%3.75220%5.09
Double chance
1X80%1.24X246%2.161273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.546%2.18Under 2.554%1.84BTTS yes48%2.08BTTS no52%1.92

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paris FC · Columns: Lorient1-1 probability 12.5%

Form

Compare →
LorientLWWDL

Head to head

Lorient – Paris FC10 October 20261-0
Lorient – Paris FC5 April 20261-1
Paris FC – Lorient3 October 20252-0