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Ligue 1 · Matchday 24Saturday 13 March · 16:00 · Groupama Stadium
Lyon3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Troyes16th place
OL 71%X 19%ETG 10%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lyon lead by 253 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Lyon 1.8 points per game, Troyes 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lyon 0.4, Troyes -0.4.
  • If Lyon score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Troyes score first, they win 35% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.7
Over 2.555%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
171%1.41X19%5.21210%10.13
Double chance
1X90%1.11X229%3.441281%1.24
Goals
Over 2.555%1.81Under 2.545%2.24BTTS yes45%2.20BTTS no55%1.83

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lyon · Columns: Troyes2-0 probability 13.3%

Form

Compare →
LyonWLWLW
TroyesLLLDW

Head to head

Troyes – Lyon4 February 20231-3
Lyon – Troyes19 August 20224-1
Troyes – Lyon16 January 20220-1
Lyon – Troyes22 September 20213-1