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Ligue 1 · Matchday 24Saturday 13 March · 16:00 · Orange Vélodrome
Marseille6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Monaco7th place
OM 46%X 26%MON 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Marseille 2.4 points per game, Monaco 1.0.
  • If Marseille score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Monaco score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.4
Over 2.563%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Marseille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.17X26%3.82228%3.61
Double chance
1X72%1.38X254%1.861274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.563%1.58Under 2.537%2.73BTTS yes65%1.55BTTS no36%2.82

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marseille · Columns: Monaco1-1 probability 10.7%

Form

Compare →
MonacoWDLDL

Head to head

Monaco – Marseille30 August 20262-0
Monaco – Marseille5 April 20262-1
Marseille – Monaco14 December 20251-0
Monaco – Marseille12 April 20253-0
Marseille – Monaco1 December 20242-1
Marseille – Monaco27 January 20242-2