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Ligue 1 · Matchday 22Saturday 27 February · 16:00 · Stade Francis-Le Blé
Brest10th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Monaco7th place
BRE 41%X 27%MON 32%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brest 0.9, Monaco -0.1.
  • If Brest score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Monaco score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.4
Over 2.557%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Brest win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
141%2.46X27%3.66232%3.12
Double chance
1X68%1.47X259%1.681273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.557%1.74Under 2.543%2.35BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.55

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brest · Columns: Monaco1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →
BrestLWDLW
MonacoWDLDL

Head to head

Monaco – Brest14 March 20262-0
Brest – Monaco5 December 20251-0
Brest – Monaco5 April 20252-1
Monaco – Brest22 November 20243-2
Brest – Monaco21 April 20240-2
Monaco – Brest5 November 20232-0