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Ligue 1 · Matchday 22Sunday 28 February · 19:45 · Parc des Princes
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Lens9th place
PSG 64%X 22%RCL 15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 118 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Paris Saint-Germain 3.0 points per game, Lens 1.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris Saint-Germain 1.0, Lens 0.2.
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Lens score first, they win 40% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.0
Over 2.561%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.57X22%4.65215%6.77
Double chance
1X85%1.17X236%2.761278%1.27
Goals
Over 2.561%1.65Under 2.539%2.54BTTS yes56%1.80BTTS no44%2.25

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paris Saint-Germain · Columns: Lens2-0 probability 10.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Lens – Paris Saint-Germain13 May 20260-2
Paris Saint-Germain – Lens14 September 20252-0
Lens – Paris Saint-Germain18 January 20251-2
Paris Saint-Germain – Lens2 November 20241-0
Lens – Paris Saint-Germain14 January 20240-2
Paris Saint-Germain – Lens26 August 20233-1