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Ligue 1 · Matchday 22Saturday 27 February · 16:00 · Stade Marie-Marvingt
Le Mans17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Paris FC4th place
LMS 20%X 24%PFC 56%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris FC lead by 159 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris FC 1.0, Le Mans -0.7.
  • Last 5 games: Paris FC 1.8 points per game, Le Mans 0.8.
  • If Le Mans score first, they win 48% of the time
  • If Paris FC score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Over 2.556%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Paris FC win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%4.90X24%4.18256%1.80
Double chance
1X44%2.25X280%1.261276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.556%1.78Under 2.544%2.28BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.27

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Le Mans · Columns: Paris FC1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

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