TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 22Saturday 27 February · 16:00 · Groupama Stadium
Lyon3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Toulouse12th place
OL 51%X 27%TFC 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lyon lead by 97 rating points.
  • Lyon take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Lyon score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.0
Over 2.549%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lyon win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.97X27%3.73223%4.44
Double chance
1X77%1.29X249%2.031273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.549%2.03Under 2.551%1.97BTTS yes52%1.92BTTS no48%2.09

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lyon · Columns: Toulouse1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →
LyonWLWLW

Head to head

Toulouse – Lyon22 August 20260-2
Toulouse – Lyon10 May 20262-1
Lyon – Toulouse5 October 20251-2
Lyon – Toulouse18 January 20250-0
Toulouse – Lyon29 September 20241-2
Toulouse – Lyon15 March 20242-3