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Ligue 1 · Matchday 18Saturday 30 January · 16:00 · Stade Francis-Le Blé
Brest14th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Strasbourg12th place
BRE 44%X 26%STR 29%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brest 0.8, Strasbourg -0.4.
  • If Brest score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Strasbourg score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.4
Over 2.562%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Brest win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.25X26%3.79229%3.43
Double chance
1X71%1.41X256%1.801274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.562%1.62Under 2.538%2.62BTTS yes64%1.57BTTS no36%2.75

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brest · Columns: Strasbourg1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →
BrestLLWDL

Head to head

Brest – Strasbourg13 May 20261-2
Strasbourg – Brest30 November 20251-2
Strasbourg – Brest23 February 20250-0
Brest – Strasbourg30 November 20243-1
Strasbourg – Brest24 February 20240-3
Brest – Strasbourg7 December 20231-1