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Ligue 1 · Matchday 18Saturday 30 January · 16:00 · Stade Marie-Marvingt
Le Mans17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Nice8th place
LMS 33%X 27%NIC 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Nice 2.4 points per game, Le Mans 0.8.
  • Nice lead by 94 rating points.
  • If Le Mans score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Nice score first, they win 68% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.5
Over 2.554%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Nice win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%3.01X27%3.73240%2.50
Double chance
1X60%1.67X267%1.501273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.554%1.85Under 2.546%2.17BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.39

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Le Mans · Columns: Nice1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →
Le MansWLLDL
NiceWWLWW

Head to head

Nice – Le Mans5 September 20261-1