TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 18Saturday 30 January · 16:00 · Orange Vélodrome
Marseille6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Troyes16th place
OM 69%X 19%ETG 11%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Marseille lead by 232 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Marseille 2.4 points per game, Troyes 0.8.
  • If Marseille score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Troyes score first, they win 35% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.4 – 0.9
Over 2.565%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
169%1.44X19%5.20211%8.87
Double chance
1X89%1.13X231%3.281281%1.24
Goals
Over 2.565%1.55Under 2.535%2.82BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.23

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marseille · Columns: Troyes2-0 probability 10.4%

Form

Compare →
TroyesLLLDW

Head to head

Troyes – Marseille11 October 20260-2
Marseille – Troyes16 April 20233-1
Troyes – Marseille11 January 20230-2
Troyes – Marseille27 February 20221-1
Marseille – Troyes28 November 20211-0