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Ligue 1 · Matchday 18Saturday 30 January · 16:00 · Stade Louis II
Monaco7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
MON 22%X 24%PSG 54%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 148 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Paris Saint-Germain 3.0 points per game, Monaco 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris Saint-Germain 1.0, Monaco -0.1.
  • If Monaco score first, they win 49% of the time
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.2 – 2.0
Over 2.561%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Paris Saint-Germain win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
122%4.58X24%4.19254%1.84
Double chance
1X46%2.19X278%1.281276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.561%1.64Under 2.539%2.57BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.54

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monaco · Columns: Paris Saint-Germain1-1 probability 10.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Paris Saint-Germain – Monaco4 September 20261-2
Paris Saint-Germain – Monaco6 March 20261-3
Monaco – Paris Saint-Germain29 November 20251-0
Paris Saint-Germain – Monaco7 February 20254-1
Monaco – Paris Saint-Germain18 December 20242-4
Monaco – Paris Saint-Germain1 March 20240-0