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Ligue 1 · Matchday 18Saturday 30 January · 16:00 · Groupama Stadium
Lyon3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Lille2nd place
OL 44%X 29%LIL 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lyon take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lyon 0.4, Lille -0.1.
  • If Lyon score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Lille score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.0
Over 2.542%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lyon win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.29X29%3.47228%3.62
Double chance
1X72%1.38X256%1.771271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.542%2.40Under 2.558%1.72BTTS yes48%2.09BTTS no52%1.92

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lyon · Columns: Lille1-1 probability 13.8%

Form

Compare →
LyonWLWLW
LilleLWDDW

Head to head

Lyon – Lille1 February 20261-0
Lille – Lyon28 September 20250-1
Lyon – Lille5 April 20252-1
Lille – Lyon1 November 20241-1
Lille – Lyon6 May 20243-4
Lyon – Lille26 November 20230-2