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Premier League · Matchday 34Saturday 1 May · 15:00 · American Express Stadium
Brighton3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Nottingham Forest19th place
BHA 54%X 26%NFO 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brighton lead by 148 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Brighton 2.4 points per game, Nottingham Forest 0.2.
  • Brighton take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Brighton score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Nottingham Forest score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.551%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Brighton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.84X26%3.90220%5.01
Double chance
1X80%1.25X246%2.191274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.551%1.97Under 2.549%2.03BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brighton · Columns: Nottingham Forest1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Brighton – Nottingham Forest1 March 20262-1
Nottingham Forest – Brighton30 November 20250-2
Nottingham Forest – Brighton1 February 20257-0
Brighton – Nottingham Forest22 September 20242-2
Brighton – Nottingham Forest10 March 20241-0
Nottingham Forest – Brighton25 November 20232-3