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Premier League · Matchday 34Saturday 1 May · 15:00 · Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Aston Villa10th place
CRY 30%X 27%AVL 43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Aston Villa lead by 115 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Aston Villa 2.2 points per game, Crystal Palace 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Aston Villa -0.3, Crystal Palace -0.9.
  • If Crystal Palace score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Over 2.552%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Aston Villa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.30X27%3.70243%2.35
Double chance
1X57%1.74X270%1.441273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.552%1.92Under 2.548%2.09BTTS yes56%1.77BTTS no44%2.29

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Crystal Palace · Columns: Aston Villa1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Crystal Palace – Aston Villa7 January 20260-0
Aston Villa – Crystal Palace31 August 20250-3
Crystal Palace – Aston Villa25 February 20254-1
Aston Villa – Crystal Palace23 November 20242-2
Crystal Palace – Aston Villa19 May 20245-0
Aston Villa – Crystal Palace16 September 20233-1