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Premier League · Matchday 34Saturday 1 May · 15:00 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Brentford6th place
MCI 62%X 23%BRE 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 128 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester City 0.6, Brentford -0.1.
  • Manchester City take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Brentford score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.0
Over 2.558%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
162%1.62X23%4.39216%6.44
Double chance
1X84%1.18X238%2.611277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.37BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.19

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester City · Columns: Brentford2-0 probability 10.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester City – Brentford9 May 20263-0
Brentford – Manchester City5 October 20250-1
Brentford – Manchester City14 January 20252-2
Manchester City – Brentford14 September 20242-1
Manchester City – Brentford20 February 20241-0
Brentford – Manchester City5 February 20241-3