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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 24Tuesday 29 December · 19:45 · Ashton Gate Stadium
Bristol City14th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Stoke City7th place
BRC 47%X 28%STK 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bristol City 0.6, Stoke City -0.3.
  • If Bristol City score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.0
Over 2.543%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Bristol City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.13X28%3.56225%4.01
Double chance
1X75%1.33X253%1.891272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.543%2.32Under 2.557%1.76BTTS yes48%2.08BTTS no52%1.93

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bristol City · Columns: Stoke City1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Stoke City – Bristol City24 October 20260-0
Bristol City – Stoke City2 May 20262-0
Stoke City – Bristol City1 November 20255-1
Bristol City – Stoke City12 February 20252-0
Stoke City – Bristol City22 October 20242-2
Stoke City – Bristol City4 May 20244-0