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Championship · Matchday 24Tuesday 29 December · 19:45 · The Den
Millwall12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Portsmouth11th place
MIL 51%X 27%POR 22%

Prediction

  • If Millwall score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Portsmouth score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.6 – 0.9
Over 2.546%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Millwall win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.96X27%3.70222%4.55
Double chance
1X78%1.28X249%2.041273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.546%2.17Under 2.554%1.85BTTS yes49%2.03BTTS no51%1.97

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Millwall · Columns: Portsmouth1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Portsmouth – Millwall24 October 20262-1
Millwall – Portsmouth21 February 20261-3
Portsmouth – Millwall22 November 20253-1
Millwall – Portsmouth5 April 20252-1
Portsmouth – Millwall28 January 20250-1