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Championship · Matchday 24Tuesday 29 December · 19:45 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County23rd place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Sheffield United10th place
DER 32%X 28%SHU 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Sheffield United 2.0 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • Sheffield United lead by 85 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sheffield United -0.2, Derby County -0.9.
  • If Derby County score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Sheffield United score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.4
Over 2.548%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Sheffield United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.17X28%3.54240%2.48
Double chance
1X60%1.67X268%1.461272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.548%2.09Under 2.552%1.92BTTS yes53%1.87BTTS no47%2.15

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Derby County · Columns: Sheffield United1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sheffield United – Derby County24 October 20261-1
Derby County – Sheffield United2 May 20261-2
Sheffield United – Derby County1 November 20251-3
Derby County – Sheffield United1 February 20250-1
Sheffield United – Derby County21 September 20241-0
Derby County – Sheffield United15 January 20222-0