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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 24Tuesday 29 December · 19:45 · Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Bolton Wanderers19th place
MID 77%X 15%BOL 8%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 203 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Bolton Wanderers -0.7.
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 2.6 points per game, Bolton Wanderers 0.8.
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If Bolton Wanderers score first, they win 27% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.8 – 0.8
Over 2.569%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
177%1.29X15%6.5928%13.23
Double chance
1X92%1.08X223%4.401285%1.18
Goals
Over 2.569%1.44Under 2.531%3.26BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.12

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
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5
Rows: Middlesbrough · Columns: Bolton Wanderers2-0 probability 10.6%

Form

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Head to head

Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough23 October 20261-5