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Championship · Matchday 24Tuesday 29 December · 19:45 · Vicarage Road
Watford21st place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Wolverhampton4th place
WAT 24%X 26%WOL 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Wolverhampton lead by 110 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Wolverhampton 0.7, Watford -0.9.
  • Last 5 games: Wolverhampton 2.0 points per game, Watford 0.6.
  • If Watford score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If Wolverhampton score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.550%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Wolverhampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.16X26%3.81250%2.01
Double chance
1X50%1.99X276%1.321274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.550%1.98Under 2.550%2.02BTTS yes53%1.87BTTS no47%2.15

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Watford · Columns: Wolverhampton1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Wolverhampton – Watford24 October 20261-0
Wolverhampton – Watford10 March 20224-0
Watford – Wolverhampton11 September 20210-2