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Eredivisie · Matchday 9Sunday 18 October · 13:30 · Kooi Stadion
Cambuur9th place
Full time2-2Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✕ Missed
AZ Alkmaar5th place
CAM 11%X 17%AZ 72%

What does the market say?

CambuurDrawAZ AlkmaarRinvalo11%17%72%
Market16%19%65%

✓ Agree · both back AZ Alkmaar

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • AZ Alkmaar lead by 275 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: AZ Alkmaar 2.6 points per game, Cambuur 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 1.0, Cambuur -0.4.
  • If Cambuur score first, they win 32% of the time
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 87% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals1.0 – 2.7
Over 2.572%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
111%8.85X17%5.88272%1.39
Double chance
1X28%3.53X289%1.131283%1.20
Goals
Over 2.572%1.38Under 2.528%3.62BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.57

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cambuur · Columns: AZ Alkmaar2-2 probability 4.7% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Cambuur – AZ Alkmaar18 October 20262-2
AZ Alkmaar – Cambuur25 February 20232-1
Cambuur – AZ Alkmaar28 August 20220-1
AZ Alkmaar – Cambuur22 January 20220-0
Cambuur – AZ Alkmaar3 October 20211-3