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Eredivisie · Matchday 9Sunday 18 October · 19:00 · Goffertstadion
NEC Nijmegen13th place
Full time2-2Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Fortuna Sittard6th place
NEC 61%X 22%FOR 17%

What does the market say?

NEC NijmegenDrawFortuna SittardRinvalo61%22%17%
Market59%21%20%

✓ Agree · both back NEC Nijmegen

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: NEC Nijmegen 0.0, Fortuna Sittard -1.1.
  • NEC Nijmegen lead by 68 rating points.
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Fortuna Sittard score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.1
Over 2.566%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
161%1.65X22%4.48217%5.87
Double chance
1X83%1.21X239%2.541278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.566%1.53Under 2.534%2.90BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.60

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: NEC Nijmegen · Columns: Fortuna Sittard2-2 probability 5.6% · final score

Form

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Head to head

NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard18 October 20262-2
NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard28 February 20262-3
Fortuna Sittard – NEC Nijmegen31 August 20253-2
NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard19 January 20254-1
Fortuna Sittard – NEC Nijmegen31 August 20240-3
Fortuna Sittard – NEC Nijmegen2 April 20241-1