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Eredivisie · Matchday 9Saturday 17 October · 20:00 · Spartastadion
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
Full time3-2Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Result correct
Willem II18th place
SPA 60%X 23%WIL 17%

What does the market say?

Sparta RotterdamDrawWillem IIRinvalo60%23%17%
Market58%22%20%

✓ Agree · both back Sparta Rotterdam

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Sparta Rotterdam lead by 104 rating points.
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Willem II score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.9
Over 2.555%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Sparta Rotterdam win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.67X23%4.33217%5.91
Double chance
1X83%1.20X240%2.501277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.555%1.81Under 2.545%2.24BTTS yes53%1.88BTTS no47%2.14

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sparta Rotterdam · Columns: Willem II3-2 probability 3.1% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Sparta Rotterdam – Willem II17 October 20263-2
Sparta Rotterdam – Willem II2 March 20254-0
Willem II – Sparta Rotterdam31 August 20241-2
Sparta Rotterdam – Willem II13 February 20221-0
Willem II – Sparta Rotterdam6 November 20210-3