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Eredivisie · Matchday 9Friday 16 October · 19:00 · Abe Lenstra Stadion
Heerenveen7th place
Full time4-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Result correct
Excelsior15th place
HEE 45%X 27%EXC 28%

What does the market say?

HeerenveenDrawExcelsiorRinvalo45%27%28%
Market61%20%18%

✓ Agree · both back Heerenveen

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Heerenveen take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Heerenveen score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Excelsior score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Over 2.554%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Heerenveen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.24X27%3.64228%3.60
Double chance
1X72%1.38X255%1.811273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.554%1.86Under 2.546%2.17BTTS yes57%1.74BTTS no43%2.34

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Heerenveen · Columns: Excelsior4-0 probability 1.6% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Heerenveen – Excelsior16 October 20264-0
Excelsior – Heerenveen7 March 20261-2
Heerenveen – Excelsior4 October 20252-1
Excelsior – Heerenveen19 January 20243-0
Heerenveen – Excelsior23 September 20230-3
Heerenveen – Excelsior13 May 20230-0