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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Eredivisie · Matchday 9Sunday 18 October · 19:00 · De Grolsch Veste
Twente4th place
Full time1-2Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✕ Missed
Utrecht12th place
TWE 64%X 22%UTR 14%

What does the market say?

TwenteDrawUtrechtRinvalo64%22%14%
Market71%17%13%

✓ Agree · both back Twente

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Twente lead by 115 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Twente 2.6 points per game, Utrecht 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Twente 1.3, Utrecht -0.1.
  • If Twente score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Utrecht score first, they win 40% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.9
Over 2.560%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.56X22%4.61214%7.02
Double chance
1X86%1.17X236%2.781278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.560%1.68Under 2.541%2.47BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.19

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Twente · Columns: Utrecht1-2 probability 4.3% · final score

Form

Compare →
TwenteWDLWW
UtrechtLWWDL

Head to head

Twente – Utrecht18 October 20261-2
Twente – Utrecht15 March 20260-2
Utrecht – Twente7 December 20251-1
Twente – Utrecht11 May 20252-0
Utrecht – Twente1 September 20242-1
Twente – Utrecht18 February 20240-1