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Eredivisie · Matchday 9Sunday 18 October · 15:45 · Euroborg
Groningen8th place
Full time2-5Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✓ Result correct
Ajax2nd place
GRO 29%X 26%AJA 45%

What does the market say?

GroningenDrawAjaxRinvalo29%26%45%
Market27%23%50%

✓ Agree · both back Ajax

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 95 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Ajax 1.0, Groningen -0.2.
  • Last 5 games: Ajax 2.0 points per game, Groningen 1.0.
  • If Groningen score first, they win 57% of the time
  • If Ajax score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.7
Over 2.557%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Ajax win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.43X26%3.83245%2.23
Double chance
1X55%1.81X271%1.411274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Under 2.543%2.32BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.49

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Groningen · Columns: Ajax2-5 probability 0.5% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Groningen – Ajax18 October 20262-5
Groningen – Ajax7 March 20263-1
Ajax – Groningen2 December 20252-0
Groningen – Ajax14 May 20252-2
Ajax – Groningen6 October 20243-1
Groningen – Ajax14 May 20232-3