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Championship · Matchday 15Saturday 7 November · 15:00 · Cardiff City Stadium
Cardiff City17th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Burnley22nd place
CAR 40%X 27%BUR 33%

What's at stake

Cardiff CityRelegation4%9%8%
BurnleyRelegation4%8%9%

Prediction

  • If Cardiff City score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Burnley score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.3
Over 2.554%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Cardiff City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.47X27%3.75233%3.04
Double chance
1X67%1.49X260%1.681273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.554%1.86Under 2.546%2.16BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.38

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cardiff City · Columns: Burnley1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

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Head to head

Cardiff City – Burnley4 March 20251-2
Burnley – Cardiff City17 August 20245-0
Burnley – Cardiff City8 May 20233-0
Cardiff City – Burnley1 October 20221-1