TR
Picks
Mon 19:45ATA1-0PAR59%Mon 19:45LOR1-0BRE44%Mon 20:00DEP1-0OSA43%Mon 20:00NEW1-0EVE42%Mon 20:15BEN2-0ALV77%Mon 20:15GIL1-0VSC44%Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%
Championship · Matchday 15Friday 6 November · 20:00 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County23rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Bolton Wanderers19th place
DER 46%X 27%BOL 27%

What's at stake

Derby CountyRelegation56%64%70%
Bolton WanderersRelegation26%33%39%

Prediction

  • If Derby County score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Bolton Wanderers score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.3
Over 2.557%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Derby County win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.17X27%3.76227%3.65
Double chance
1X73%1.38X254%1.851273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Under 2.543%2.32BTTS yes60%1.68BTTS no40%2.47

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Derby County · Columns: Bolton Wanderers1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →