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Championship · Matchday 15Saturday 7 November · 12:30 · SToK Cae Ras
Wrexham18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Wolverhampton4th place
WRE 32%X 28%WOL 40%

What's at stake

WolverhamptonAutomatic promotion10%6%5%

What does the market say?

WrexhamDrawWolverhamptonRinvalo32%28%40%
Market32%27%42%

✓ Agree · both back Wolverhampton

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Wolverhampton 2.0 points per game, Wrexham 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Wolverhampton 0.7, Wrexham -0.3.
  • The market also backs the away side (42%).
  • If Wrexham score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Wolverhampton score first, they win 68% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.5
Over 2.552%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Wolverhampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.14X28%3.52240%2.52
Double chance
1X60%1.66X268%1.471272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.552%1.91Market 50%Under 2.548%2.10Market 50%BTTS yes57%1.76Market 56%BTTS no43%2.32Market 44%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Wrexham · Columns: Wolverhampton1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

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