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Championship · Matchday 15Saturday 7 November · 15:00 · St Andrew's @ Knighthead Park
Birmingham City6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Swansea City3rd place
BIR 48%X 27%SWA 25%

What's at stake

Birmingham CityAutomatic promotion14%9%8%
Swansea CityAutomatic promotion9%8%4%

What does the market say?

Birmingham CityDrawSwansea CityRinvalo48%27%25%
Market47%27%26%

✓ Agree · both back Birmingham City

Prediction

Key factors
  • The market also backs the home side (47%).
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Swansea City score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.0
Over 2.545%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Birmingham City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.08X27%3.68225%4.03
Double chance
1X75%1.33X252%1.921273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.545%2.20Market 50%Under 2.555%1.83Market 50%BTTS yes50%2.00Market 54%BTTS no50%2.00Market 46%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Birmingham City · Columns: Swansea City1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Swansea City – Birmingham City17 January 20261-1
Birmingham City – Swansea City20 September 20251-0
Birmingham City – Swansea City13 January 20242-2
Swansea City – Birmingham City5 August 20231-1
Swansea City – Birmingham City4 February 20233-4
Birmingham City – Swansea City8 November 20222-2