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Championship · Matchday 15Saturday 7 November · 12:30 · Fratton Park
Portsmouth11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Stoke City7th place
POR 47%X 29%STK 25%

What does the market say?

PortsmouthDrawStoke CityRinvalo47%29%25%
Market38%29%33%

✓ Agree · both back Portsmouth

Prediction

Key factors
  • The market also backs the home side (38%).
  • If Portsmouth score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.4 – 0.9
Over 2.542%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Portsmouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.14X29%3.48225%4.08
Double chance
1X75%1.33X253%1.881271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.542%2.39Market 43%Under 2.558%1.72Market 57%BTTS yes47%2.12Market 50%BTTS no53%1.89Market 50%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Portsmouth · Columns: Stoke City1-1 probability 13.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Stoke City – Portsmouth25 April 20261-3
Portsmouth – Stoke City25 October 20250-1
Portsmouth – Stoke City22 January 20253-1
Stoke City – Portsmouth2 October 20246-1