TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 10Tuesday 13 October · 19:45 · Cardiff City Stadium
Cardiff City17th place
Full time5-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Result correct
Watford21st place
CAR 47%X 27%WAT 26%

What does the market say?

Cardiff CityDrawWatfordRinvalo47%27%26%
Market57%22%21%

✓ Agree · both back Cardiff City

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Cardiff City 0.2, Watford -0.9.
  • If Cardiff City score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Watford score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.0
Over 2.546%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Cardiff City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.13X27%3.70226%3.85
Double chance
1X74%1.35X253%1.891273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.546%2.16Under 2.554%1.86BTTS yes51%1.97BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cardiff City · Columns: Watford5-1 probability 0.5% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Cardiff City – Watford13 October 20265-1
Cardiff City – Watford14 January 20251-1
Watford – Cardiff City29 December 20241-2
Watford – Cardiff City3 February 20240-1
Cardiff City – Watford7 October 20231-1
Watford – Cardiff City19 April 20231-3