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Championship · Matchday 10Tuesday 13 October · 20:00 · bet365 Stadium
Stoke City7th place
Full time2-3Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✓ Result correct
Middlesbrough1st place
STK 24%X 27%MID 50%

What does the market say?

Stoke CityDrawMiddlesbroughRinvalo24%27%50%
Market27%26%47%

✓ Agree · both back Middlesbrough

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 125 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 0.8, Stoke City -0.5.
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.6
Over 2.549%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Middlesbrough win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.21X27%3.74250%2.02
Double chance
1X51%1.98X276%1.311273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.549%2.03Under 2.551%1.98BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.11

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Stoke City · Columns: Middlesbrough2-3 probability 2.7% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Stoke City – Middlesbrough13 October 20262-3
Stoke City – Middlesbrough21 January 20261-2
Middlesbrough – Stoke City30 September 20250-0
Stoke City – Middlesbrough25 February 20251-3
Middlesbrough – Stoke City28 September 20242-0
Stoke City – Middlesbrough2 March 20242-0