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Championship · Matchday 10Wednesday 14 October · 19:45 · Carrow Road
Norwich City15th place
Full time0-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✓ Result correct
Southampton2nd place
NOR 35%X 27%SOU 38%

What does the market say?

Norwich CityDrawSouthamptonRinvalo35%27%38%
Market40%25%35%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Southampton 38%, market Norwich City 40%

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 99 rating points.
  • Southampton take 1.8 points per game away.
  • If Norwich City score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Southampton score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.7
Over 2.565%
Both teams score66%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Southampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.86X27%3.77238%2.60
Double chance
1X62%1.62X265%1.541273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.565%1.54Under 2.535%2.84BTTS yes66%1.50BTTS no34%2.98

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Norwich City · Columns: Southampton0-1 probability 5.4% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Norwich City – Southampton14 October 20260-1
Southampton – Norwich City18 March 20261-0
Norwich City – Southampton13 December 20252-1
Norwich City – Southampton1 January 20241-1
Southampton – Norwich City12 August 20234-4
Southampton – Norwich City25 February 20222-0