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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 10Tuesday 13 October · 19:45 · The Den
Millwall12th place
Full time0-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✕ Missed
Swansea City3rd place
MIL 47%X 27%SWA 25%

What does the market say?

MillwallDrawSwansea CityRinvalo47%27%25%
Market39%28%33%

✓ Agree · both back Millwall

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
  • If Millwall score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Swansea City score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.0
Over 2.546%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Millwall win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.11X27%3.65225%3.98
Double chance
1X75%1.34X253%1.901273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.546%2.18Under 2.554%1.85BTTS yes50%1.99BTTS no50%2.01

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Millwall · Columns: Swansea City0-1 probability 7.4% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Millwall – Swansea City13 October 20260-1
Millwall – Swansea City4 January 20262-1
Swansea City – Millwall27 September 20251-1
Millwall – Swansea City26 April 20251-0
Swansea City – Millwall26 October 20240-1
Swansea City – Millwall4 May 20240-1