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La Liga · Matchday 14Sunday 29 November · 16:00 · Estadio Abanca-Balaídos
Celta Vigo9th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Villarreal8th place
CEL 32%X 29%VIL 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Villarreal 1.1, Celta Vigo -0.3.
  • Villarreal lead by 64 rating points.
  • If Celta Vigo score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.4
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Villarreal win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.13X29%3.49239%2.54
Double chance
1X61%1.65X268%1.471271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.549%2.06Under 2.551%1.94BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Celta Vigo · Columns: Villarreal1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Villarreal – Celta Vigo26 April 20262-1
Celta Vigo – Villarreal31 August 20251-1
Celta Vigo – Villarreal23 April 20253-0
Villarreal – Celta Vigo26 August 20244-3
Celta Vigo – Villarreal5 May 20243-2
Villarreal – Celta Vigo20 December 20233-2