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La Liga · Matchday 14Sunday 29 November · 16:00 · Estadio La Rosaleda
Málaga20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Athletic Bilbao7th place
MAL 21%X 26%ATH 53%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Athletic Bilbao lead by 130 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Athletic Bilbao 0.4, Málaga -0.8.
  • Last 5 games: Athletic Bilbao 1.6 points per game, Málaga 0.4.
  • If Málaga score first, they win 52% of the time
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.6
Over 2.546%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Athletic Bilbao win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
121%4.71X26%3.91253%1.88
Double chance
1X47%2.14X279%1.271274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.546%2.20Under 2.554%1.84BTTS yes48%2.07BTTS no52%1.93

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Málaga · Columns: Athletic Bilbao1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

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