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La Liga · Matchday 14Sunday 29 November · 16:00 · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Real Madrid3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Alavés11th place
RMA 77%X 16%ALA 7%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 250 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Real Madrid 2.4 points per game, Alavés 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Alavés -0.3.
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If Alavés score first, they win 28% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.5 – 0.7
Over 2.562%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
177%1.30X16%6.4027%13.72
Double chance
1X93%1.08X223%4.361284%1.19
Goals
Over 2.562%1.61Under 2.538%2.65BTTS yes46%2.18BTTS no54%1.85

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Madrid · Columns: Alavés2-0 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Real Madrid – Alavés21 April 20262-1
Alavés – Real Madrid14 December 20251-2
Alavés – Real Madrid13 April 20250-1
Real Madrid – Alavés24 September 20243-2
Real Madrid – Alavés14 May 20245-0
Alavés – Real Madrid21 December 20230-1