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La Liga · Matchday 14Sunday 29 November · 16:00 · Estadio Martínez Valero
Elche17th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Atlético Madrid2nd place
ELC 23%X 26%ATM 51%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 181 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Elche 1.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atlético Madrid 0.5, Elche -0.7.
  • If Elche score first, they win 53% of the time
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.7
Over 2.551%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Atlético Madrid win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
123%4.37X26%3.88251%1.95
Double chance
1X49%2.06X277%1.301274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.551%1.95Under 2.549%2.05BTTS yes54%1.87BTTS no46%2.16

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Elche · Columns: Atlético Madrid1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Elche – Atlético Madrid22 April 20263-2
Atlético Madrid – Elche23 August 20251-1
Elche – Atlético Madrid14 May 20231-0
Atlético Madrid – Elche29 December 20222-0
Elche – Atlético Madrid11 May 20220-2
Atlético Madrid – Elche22 August 20211-0