TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 38Wednesday 17 March · 19:45 · The Den
Millwall12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Watford21st place
MIL 64%X 22%WAT 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Millwall lead by 154 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Millwall 0.5, Watford -0.9.
  • If Millwall score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Watford score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.8
Over 2.550%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.56X22%4.49214%7.30
Double chance
1X86%1.16X236%2.781278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.550%2.00Under 2.550%2.00BTTS yes46%2.17BTTS no54%1.86

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Millwall · Columns: Watford2-0 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →
WatfordLLWLL

Head to head

Watford – Millwall17 January 20260-2
Millwall – Watford22 September 20251-0
Watford – Millwall8 March 20251-2
Millwall – Watford10 August 20242-3
Millwall – Watford2 March 20241-0
Watford – Millwall28 October 20232-2