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Championship · Matchday 44Tuesday 20 April · 19:45 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County23rd place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Portsmouth11th place
DER 32%X 29%POR 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Portsmouth 2.2 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • Portsmouth lead by 81 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Portsmouth 0.1, Derby County -0.9.
  • If Derby County score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Portsmouth score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.3
Over 2.545%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Portsmouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.12X29%3.42239%2.58
Double chance
1X61%1.63X268%1.471271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.545%2.23Under 2.555%1.81BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Derby County · Columns: Portsmouth1-1 probability 13.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Portsmouth – Derby County1 September 20260-2
Portsmouth – Derby County16 March 20260-1
Derby County – Portsmouth20 December 20251-1
Portsmouth – Derby County12 April 20252-2
Derby County – Portsmouth13 December 20244-0