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Championship · Matchday 44Tuesday 20 April · 19:45 · Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Burnley22nd place
MID 65%X 21%BUR 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 2.6 points per game, Burnley 1.0.
  • Middlesbrough lead by 84 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Burnley -0.2.
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Burnley score first, they win 40% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.9
Over 2.557%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
165%1.55X21%4.66214%7.13
Double chance
1X86%1.16X235%2.821279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.557%1.74Under 2.543%2.35BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Middlesbrough · Columns: Burnley2-0 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Burnley – Middlesbrough2 September 20261-1
Middlesbrough – Burnley29 December 20240-0
Burnley – Middlesbrough6 December 20241-1
Middlesbrough – Burnley7 April 20231-2
Burnley – Middlesbrough17 December 20223-1