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Championship · Matchday 44Tuesday 20 April · 19:45 · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton2nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Birmingham City6th place
SOU 53%X 26%BIR 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 101 rating points.
  • Southampton take 2.4 points per game at home.
  • If Southampton score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.0
Over 2.553%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Southampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.87X26%3.91221%4.76
Double chance
1X79%1.27X247%2.151274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Under 2.547%2.14BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.19

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Southampton · Columns: Birmingham City1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Birmingham City – Southampton1 September 20261-1
Birmingham City – Southampton29 December 20251-1
Southampton – Birmingham City6 December 20253-1
Birmingham City – Southampton2 March 20243-4
Southampton – Birmingham City28 October 20233-1